Playoff Fever

Super Bowl XLI

Buckle up folks, it's time to predict the Super Bowl. I've got a one game lead on Wade, so to be sporting, I'll pick first. That said, there's very little mystery to my selection process here. I think that the two teams are pretty evenly matched. Indy's got the better offense. Chicago's got the better defense. Indy's got the best kicker. Chicago's got the X-Factor return man. Both coaches are, as they say, pretty good. And after all that talk, the simple truth is that a Vikings fan does not under any circumstances endorse a Bears victory. Go Indianapolis.

All of the talking (screaming?) heads are saying that this is the most intriguing Super Bowl in over a decade. Really? Beyond Vasher, there seems to be very little excitement. I suppose there's the possibility of every sportswriter's apparent dream: Rex Grossman throwing an interception on the first play of the game, then grabbing Tank Johnson's piece, going on a shooting spree, killing everyone. I can't get excited about anyone named Manning. I suppose there's a bit of me that's pulling to see Marvin Harrison win the big one: he's done his time, and is a fairly classy individual. And I guess there's somewhat of the local angle with former Gopher Ben Utecht playing TE for the Colts. And I like Tony Dungy (who is, in case you haven't heard, black.) I give the game an overwhelming "meh" and begrudgingly pick Indianapolis.

three-for-four last week-- it's all about showing improvement. kind of like, when you're drunk and dancing at a wedding reception, it's all about the side-to-side. am i talking? anyway, i just got some inspiration from mike vick's water bottle, so i'm ready to pragn.. prognis.. guess about who's going to win this weekend, and make it to the SUPER BOWL (...bowl...bowl...)

Super Bowl? Mike Vick'll smoke it!

This is it - the best weekend of the football year, folks. Don't believe me? Try these on for size: The Catch; The Drive; The Fumble; The Ice Bowl; Harbaugh to Bailey; "He Missed It"; yes, even Morten Andersen. Isn't that better than the Super Bowl? Even the last few Supers, what have they had? The Stop was great. Then what? The Kick? The Kick Part II The Sequel? Ehh. Nice to have an entertaining Super, but it's nothing compared to the Conference Champs. So kick back on Sunday and enjoy the action.

Oh, and last week I was a pedestrian 2-for-4, but that's still enough to keep me one game ahead of Wade. Let's pick 'em.

Championship Round

New Orleans at Chicago c'mon. the resurgence of drew brees. the mission that reggie bush has been on. the magic of rising from the (albeit wet) ashes of the city of new orleans. a team of destiny. cinderella. what kind of fascist would pick against the saints this weekend?

me.

i love a good romance as much as the next guy. actually, more-- not many men would cop to owning multiple copies of casablanca-- but i can't pick the saints to go on to the super bowl. love to, but i can't. here's why:

• weather. the saints played over half of their games this season in a dome; the coldest they've seen it was an early november game in pittsburgh. it may not break 30 degrees in chicago on sunday. not arctic, but new orleans will be playing out of their element. especially given that drew brees is accustomed to playing most of his games in the superdome or in san diego over the past six years.
• defense. in the cold, defense rules. despite not playing as strongly of late, the chicago defense is one of the best in the league. knowing that their collective back is against the wall, the bear defense turns it up to 11. look for a huge game from urlacher.
• overconfidence. i'm the only person i've seen that is picking the bears to win this weekend. the saints players are saying they don't believe in destiny, but they read newspapers-- everyone is seemingly handing this game to them. i'd certainly let my mind wander to florida and XLI. wouldn't you?

even though the right side of my brain wants the saints to win, the left wins. per usual. Bears

No dome team has ever won a conference championship game on the road, outdoors. Saints will be the first.

(The reason that's so short is that I'm convinced wadE will stab me with a Ginsu if I bring up the only other road dome team to win a conference championship game.)

New England at Indianapolis crap. this one's tough. is this the year for indy? have peyton and marvin toiled long enough, missed out in the playoffs too many times? will hosting the championship game at home finally give them the push that they need to make it to the dance?

i don't think so. see my note from the last round's predictions: never back brady into a corner. people think the pats are softer this year, and that they don't have a shot because they're on the road this week. bah. humbug, i say. the patriots have earned the right for me to pick them to win despite the odds, based on their performance over the past five years. i'm concerned about rodney harrison being out again, but no matter: the indy defense can't continue to play out of their minds. lo mulroney dedicates the game to tim brewster and runs buck-wild. and belichick owns dungy. 'nuff said. we've got a rematch of super bowl XX, friends. New England

Pay attention here, because this is intricate. I really don't give two whips for either of these teams. I'm going to pick Indianapolis. Now, is that a simple jinx? Am I secretly backing the Pats and banking on jinxing with a pick? Or am I secretly backing Indy, and picking the jinx pick but talking about it so that it negates the jinx? Or am I- you know what, I could on for a while. Best go pour yourself a drink. (Good general advice, by the way.) Here's the real deal. What I'm really secretly cheering for is for Vinatieri to have the winning kick. I would love for Mr Golden Boy Brady to get knocked out by the kicker that won all those Super Bowls for him.

Not much in the way of insight from me this week, I know. I'm protesting the fact that this is the first Championship weekend in three years that I haven't spent in Vegas. So there.

okay, two-for-four in the first round. that's not so bad, right? 50% is a passing grade in most schools now, isn't it? dammit. well, that shows me for going with the underdog. let's try a better showing this week, shall we?

I was led to believe there would be no math.

Round Two

Indianapolis at Baltimore indy looked good last week against the chiefs. (chieves? i've never understood how the plural form of team names never follows regular grammar rules. toronto maple leafs? stanford cardinal? am i talking?) the last time steve mcnair was considered mobile i was getting drunk on pig's eye lean and worrying about my econ final, freeney and company could have a field day on saturday. manning has had success against the vaunted ravens D before. however, to me, there's really only one statistic that matters for this tilt. baltimore's home record in 2007: 7-1. given ray lewis, et al, i don't see any reason why that trend will change this week. Baltimore

Interestingly, the most glaring mistake I made last week was calling the Colts and Chefs (Great Googly-Moogly!) Defenses weak. But let's look at this from the other side of that angle. If the Chiefs can slow down Indy to such an extent, what will the Ravens do? Of course, the other side of that angle is whether or not the Ravens Offense can do much of anything at all, either. I'm betting they can. Baltimore takes it.

Philadelphia at New Orleans i didn't have to go as far back as i thought i would to find a saints playoff victory: 2000, when they beat the rams in the NFC wild card game. (they later went on to lose to your minnesota vikings, in case you're scoring at home.) traditionally, the saints have played like crap in the postseason, the few times that they've had the chance to be there. the difference this year? reggie bush. bush had a quiet season, compared to expectations: less than 600 yards, six touchdowns. the postseason will be a whole different story as sean payton features the USC standout in his offense, leading to two touchdowns. see last week's prediction re: my feeling about the eagles. philly has as much chance to win this game with jerry garcia behind center. New Orleans

That playoff win Wade references? It's the only one in Saints history.
As much as it hurts for me to say this, please allow me to turn into Nick Bakay here, and let's do a tale of the tape thing.
Saints QB Drew Brees vs. Eagles QB Jeff Garcia.
I think you'd have to say that Brees's career body of work is greater than Garcia's. Advantage: Saints.
Saints RBs McAllister and Bush vs. Eagles RB Westbrook.
No knock on Westbrook, but... Advantage: Saints.
Saints WRs Horn and Colston vs. Eagles WRs... umm... yeah. Advantage: Saints.
Coaches Payton vs Reid.
When was the last time you heard someone say: "Reid really kept the Eagles in that with his decisions and gave them a chance to win it"? Payton was coach of the year this year. Advantage: Saints.
Defense. Name me five players from either team, combined. Advantage: ...push.
And yet even with all that... I have a hard time picking the Saints. But hell, let's all do the Benson Boogie. (Remember that?) I'm pickin' New Orleans.

Seattle at Chicago really? you need something on this? okay, how about this: it's going to snow. the seahawks are accustomed to precipitation, but the liquid kind. the predicted high in chicago is 32 on sunday, with a 40% chance of a wintry mix. (i always think of a christmas CD a friend made me last year when i hear the term "wintry mix." is that strange? nevermind.) despite rex grossman playing like ass and having more self-esteem issues than britney, the bears have no choice but to win this one on their own tundra. Chicago

All the ESPN talking heads say that Chicago will win both by the mere fact of their defense taking the field, and the fact that Rex Grossman is "up and down", and since his last game was "down", this game he'll be "up". Seriously? They're assuring us Grossman will be fine, and that's the rationale? I just don't know. I don't think Chicago is going to roll through this game. I think it's going to be close. And... ah what the hell. I'm picking Seattle to win.

New England at San Diego easily the best matchup of the weekend. and, the toughest to call. this may be an understatement, but the charger offense looks *good*. LDT is obviously the premier offensive player right now, p rivers is doing a good job at QB, frequently passing the ball off to TE antonio gates. that's exacerbated by new england missing S rodney harrison in the postseason due to an injured right knee. so this is a no-brainer, right? wrong. NOBODY puts brady in the corner. despite losing vinatieri, the patriots officially are going to be given the edge by yours truly in the playoffs until proven otherwise. i know it's not the same team that won the superbowl in 2004, 2003, or 2001. but with tom brady at the helm, you'd be an idiot to think anyone else could win. New England

Definitely the best matchup, and best subplots. Will Belicheck gamble on Schottenheimer's conservatism and Rivers's inexperience and load up against the run? How will things play out from there? Will Brady and Co. be able to do anything against the Chargers and their 'roid-feuled defense? I still don't like it, but I'm just not going to pick against New England until somebody else beats them.

yes, it's that time again-- time for alex and me to make our predictions for the NFL postseason. we've done this a few times now, and, clearly, should know better by now.

per usual, i'll start with the standard disclaimer that i'm no longer a big football guy; i watched no more than four full quarters of football this season, all vikings games, and all mind-numbingly boring. maybe if they get an offense like they had in '98 i'll start caring again, but until then? sunday afternoon is prime time for weekend errands. anyhoo, per usual, i don't let this lack of knowledge stop me from acting like i know what i'm talking about.

Playoffs?! . . . Ahem. Playoffs?! There, that's better. And Wade's covered the bulk of our combined failure at predicting, so I think we're all set here. Oh, and if you hadn't quite figured it out yet, red font = Alex. You knew that.

not that i'm one to toot my own horn (i'm not that flexible), but if you look at last year's picks, i chose the steelers to win the XL superbowl, while al chose the hapless seahawks. who's the playoff prognostication king now, punky?

Stick a sock in it, Ray! Great, I've already resorted to inside jokes. This bodes ill.

speaking of last year, in a similar fashion we'll pick one round at a time and update this every week, so be sure to check back as we try to rewrite history so we look less stupid.

on to the picks...

Round One

New York Jets at New England the patriots have appeared off this year compared to seasons past. is tom brady starting to show some... vincibility? (what is the opposite of invincibility, anyway?) the pats will also be missing safety rodney harrison for this game, making them vulnerable to the jets' passing game. said passing game, however, is still led by chaz pennington, the dictionary definition of "spank." and while the jets have a decent receiving pair in coles and cotchery (didn't they start c&C music factory?) their defense can't stop new england's double-threat backfield of corey dillon and lo mulroney. New England.

It's gonna be a Subway Super Bowl, baby! Jets vs. Giants! This is the first step! There are subways in Miami, right? Ok, so I don't really believe that. I am having trouble finding anything relevant to say about this game. The Jets have been "hot" of late, if you consider beating Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota, Miami, and Oakland "hot". Meanwhile the Pats have been victorious, but underwhelming, and the Harrison injury isn't going to help. I guess I just can't see a way to pick the Jets to win, even though I'd rather not sit through another post-season of hearing about how great Bellicheck and Brady are. New England will win.

Oh, and Wade: the opposite of invincibility is vanquishability. Duh.

Kansas City at Indianapolis This seems to be a pretty popular upset pick, what with the chiefs having larry johnson running the ball, and the colts' strange decision to just not play defense against the run this season. don't fall into that trap, though-- as much as it pains me to say it, peyton is still the best quarterback in the league right now, and it would take quite a bit for me to go against him in his home stadium. along with joseph addai, marvin harrison, and reggie wayne, the colts have too many weapons for the kansas city defense to deal with. sorry, herm. Indianapolis.

Ahh, the moveable object vs. the resistable force. What? No, that's not a typo. I'm talking about the defenses of both these teams. I'm fully expecting to see the Chiefs rack up 300 yards rushing, while Peyton Manning racks up 500 in the air with his rocket arm, and his 6'4" frame. You know, if you like that sort of thing. I think this could go either way, but I agree with Wade that it's more likely to be Indianapolis coming out on top.

Dallas at Seattle. similar to how everyone is down on indy, many are dismissing the cowboys as a legitimate playoff contender after their embarrassing loss to detroit during week 17. these people are wrong: the cowboys will be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs. we're talking bill parcells: if there's one person who can motivate both an inexperienced rookie (romo) and a ball-hogging jackass (TO) to win, it's him. despite seattle's record, they're still, well, seattle and they're still quarterbacked by milquetoast hasselbeck. plus, i think that the officials will have it out for mike holmgren after his bitching in the playoffs last season. Dallas.

You know what my favorite thing about Tony Romo is? It's that now, when people say "Romo", they're not talking about a saliva-launching, 'roid-freaked asshole. Seriously. This is another game that I just can't get my brain around. Dallas has looked horrible of late, and Seattle did their level best to give their division away to San Francisco. Man, read the last part of that sentence again. And I'm still tempted to go 'Hawks. I need something to break this tie... let's go to the weather forecast! Hmm... rainy and 40s in Seattle this weekend. That sounds like Shaun Alexander weather to me. I'm picking Seattle.

New York Giants at Philadelphia. wait-- is that right? did philly actually make the playoffs this season? and they're hosting? wow. and jeff garcia? there used to be a guy by that name who was a decent QB in san francisco, but that was so long ago.. what? same guy? you're kidding. home-field advantage or no, that's not going to end well for philly. sorry. eli manning is pretty bad and the giants seem like they're in a bit of a swirl right now, but garcia is going to turn back into a pumpkin before this game is over. and you know what that means? more jeremy shockey. barf. New York Giants.

I'd like to interject something here, quickly, if I could. You know what really bugs the crap out of me of late? I've been watching these NFL morning shows on ESPN, FOX, etc, and they all list the day's matchups as, for example: "New York Giants vs Philadelphia". Now, where I was trained in the use of the English language, that would indicate that the Giants are the home team, and that they're playing versus Philly, and if you wished to list the home team second you used the word at, just like Wade did above. However, these networks use the two interchangeably, and assume that we'll assume that the home team is always listed second. It bugs me. Yes, I'm strange. Since I'm venting, I'm also annoyed that the NHL switched to having the home team wear the colored jersey.

Really, I just don't want to talk about this game. Can you tell? All right fine, I'll predict it, but I'm not going to watch it, and you can't make me. This one's actually quite easy. I can't pick Eli Manning to win a playoff game, not and still live with myself in the morning. Philadelphia will win.