Whither Doug
- Wade
I'd be lying if I said I'm a big Doug Mientkiewicz guy. I was, briefly, in 2001. He hit over .300, played great defense, and chewed bubblegum like a madman. He wasn't the second coming of Kent Hrbek, but he was better than any of the stiffs we trotted out since Hrbie's retirement in '94. (Stahoviak... Maas... Masteller... Huskey...)
I'd also be lying if I said I didn't check startribune.com more frequently yesterday to see if Dougie Baseball had been traded yet. In a move that seems downright weird, someone in the Twins organization leaked the team's plans to trade Mient to both him and the Strib. Unless the deal was already done, why would you tell anyone that? Doug won't be motivated to play very hard, even if he doesn't get traded. And his value to other teams would decrease when they know the Twins are trying to ship him out.
Regardless, it appears that a deal is imminent. Considering how I've slandered him the past three years, I should be happy. Right? Let's look.
Since I'm now a Billy Beaneite after reading Moneyball, let's compare Doug's 2003 saber-friendly stats to the rest of the AL's starting first basemen:
|
Player
|
Team
|
OBP
|
|
Delgado
|
TOR
|
0.426
|
|
Giambi
|
NYY
|
0.412
|
|
Mientkiewicz
|
MIN
|
0.393
|
|
Olerud
|
SEA
|
0.372
|
|
Millar
|
BOS
|
0.348
|
|
Lee
|
TB
|
0.348
|
|
Hatteberg
|
OAK
|
0.342
|
|
Conine
|
BAL
|
0.338
|
|
Pena
|
DET
|
0.332
|
|
Teixeira
|
TEX
|
0.331
|
|
Spiezio
|
ANA
|
0.326
|
|
Broussard
|
CLE
|
0.312
|
|
Harvey
|
KC
|
0.307
|
|
Konerko
|
CWS
|
0.305
|
|
average
|
|
0.349
|
|
Player
|
Team
|
SLG
|
|
Delgado
|
TOR
|
0.593
|
|
Giambi
|
NYY
|
0.527
|
|
Teixeira
|
TEX
|
0.480
|
|
Millar
|
BOS
|
0.472
|
|
Conine
|
BAL
|
0.460
|
|
Lee
|
TB
|
0.459
|
|
Spiezio
|
ANA
|
0.453
|
|
Mientkiewicz
|
MIN
|
0.450
|
|
Broussard
|
CLE
|
0.443
|
|
Pena
|
DET
|
0.440
|
|
Konerko
|
CWS
|
0.399
|
|
Olerud
|
SEA
|
0.390
|
|
Hatteberg
|
OAK
|
0.383
|
|
Harvey
|
KC
|
0.344
|
|
average
|
|
0.450
|
|
Player
|
Team
|
HR
|
|
Delgado
|
TOR
|
42
|
|
Giambi
|
NYY
|
41
|
|
Teixeira
|
TEX
|
26
|
|
Millar
|
BOS
|
25
|
|
Hatteberg
|
OAK
|
21
|
|
Lee
|
TB
|
19
|
|
Konerko
|
CWS
|
18
|
|
Pena
|
DET
|
18
|
|
Spiezio
|
ANA
|
16
|
|
Broussard
|
CLE
|
16
|
|
Conine
|
BAL
|
15
|
|
Harvey
|
KC
|
13
|
|
Mientkiewicz
|
MIN
|
11
|
|
Olerud
|
SEA
|
10
|
|
average
|
|
20.8
|
What does that tell us? About what we expected-- he gets on base a lot, average slugging, and no pop. (I must admit some surprise at how well Dougie ranked on on-base percentage.) We Minnesotans are starved for power, though, and rightly so-- it's been sixteen years since we've had a player hit 30 homeruns, even in this juiced-ball era. Enter the long-haired Canadian.
Justin Morneau. (trumpet flare)
Although it's likely statistical sacrilege, let's project Morneau's current stats over a full 162-game season:
|
|
G
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
HR
|
|
Morneau
|
16
|
0.316
|
0.528
|
5
|
|
projected
|
162
|
0.316
|
0.528
|
45
|
Huh.
Again, just a projection, Morneau has been hot lately and will likely come back to earth when pitchers see him more than once. But he sure looks like he's a cure for what ails those of us who'd like to see consistent power from our corner infielders.
Can we get fair value for Doug? Probably not, especially if we have to throw in Cuddyer or Restovich in order to rent someone like Kris Benson for two months. In a perfect world, Doug would cede his starting spot to the youngster and provide great spot defense and pinch hitting down the stretch. Knowing his history, though, Mientkiewicz is unlikely to go quietly into that good night. Therefore it's best for all parties if Morneau gets his chance to shine (or not) in Minnesota and Doug can go to a situation where he's the starting first basemen.
That way Pirates fans can hear all about how their weak-hit first baseman saves 65 runs a year because of his defensive prowess.
What do you think? Drop us a line at webmaster@simpleprop.com and give us some
feedback. Maybe we'll even run your letters in future Gambits. 'The Daily Gambit' is updated every weekday.
